the monty hall problem

Picture the scene. You've made it through to the final round of a game show. There are three doors in front of you. Behind one of the doors is the star prize - a brand new car. There is a goat behind each of the other two doors. You make your choice, hoping to select the star prize. The game show host (who knows where the car is hidden) opens a different door to reveal a goat. The choice is now down to two doors. He asks whether you'd like to stick with your original choice or whether you'd like to switch doors...